"The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention." It has been translated to over 20 languages and won the Paul A. Samuelson Award, among others. She received her Ph.D. from Columbia University. In fact, as Ilzetzki, Reinhart, and I show, core exchange-rate volatility was declining long before the pandemic, especially as one central bank after another skirted the zero bound. ", Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. Dear Austerity Mavens... Post by kalm » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:28 pm...you're doing it wrong. From 2001 to 2003, she returned to the International Monetary Fund as deputy director at the Research Department. [4], This biography of a living person is in the category. 15639 January 2010, Revised January 2010 JEL No. When the family moved to Miami, Reinhart started college at two-year Miami Dade College, before transferring to Florida International University, where she received a B.A. Carmen M. Reinhart is Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland. Agenda . Indeed, economist Paul Krugman argued that even the combination of the Oct. 2008 bailout plus the Feb. 2009 bailout did not go big enough, although Blinder states that they were large compared to previous bailouts. The work argued that debt above 90% of GDP was particularly harmful to economic growth, while corrections have shown this is not the case, and that the negative correlation between debt and growth does not increase above 90% as their work had contended. ... by Guest Blogger for Net Politics. (2009). [1] They have one son. Assuming this role on June 15, 2020, Reinhart provides thought leadership for the institution at an unprecedented time of crisis. Bibtex Slides Published Version Appendix How Big (Small?) Journal of the European Economic Association 14.1 (February 2016): 215–251. She has been the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School since 2012.[2]. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134:2, 599–646, 2019. Political flare-ups: will Brexit to US-China tensions and other political hotspots, heighten economic, financial volatility? Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. [7][19] Rogoff and Reinhart claimed that their fundamental conclusions were accurate, despite the errors. Published Version . [1] In 1988 she returned to Columbia to obtain her Ph.D. under the supervision of Robert Mundell. The dataset She also manages the Bank’s Development Economics Department. Large amounts of governmental debt, household debt, corporate debt, and financial institution debt were left in its wake. [18], Recovery from what Blinder terms a Reinhart-Rogoff recession may require debt forgiveness, either directly or implicitly, by encouraging somewhat higher than normal rates of inflation. World Bank, Congressional Budget Office Advisory Board (nonremunerated) [20][21], A review by Herndon, Ash, and Pollin of her widely cited paper with Rogoff, "Growth in a Time of Debt", argued that "coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics lead to serious errors that inaccurately represent the relationship between public debt and GDP growth among 20 advanced economies in the post-war period". [7], On May 20, 2020, Reinhart was appointed World Bank Chief Economist, starting on June 15, 2020.[8]. Harvard Kennedy School is proud of its energetic involvement in the world. During wars, governments finance their war expenditures however they can, and right now there are dire needs.” “The scenario we are in is not a sustainable one,” she added. Welcome Address by Alastair Wilson, Managing Director, Global Sovereign ‍ 9:05 EST | 14:05 GMT . are Fiscal Multipliers? Her best-selling book (with Kenneth S. Rogoff)  entitled This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly  documents the striking similarities of the recurring booms and busts that have characterized financial history. But the political will to undertake these measures may well be lacking if countries decide to turn inward rather than prop up the global economy. The Big Picture: Global Credit Themes in 2021. ", Reinhart, Carmen M., Vincent Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch. The appointment is effective June 15, President David Malpass said in a statement Wednesday. Abstract. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. [14] Her book (with Kenneth Rogoff), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, studied the striking similarities of the recurring booms and busts that have characterized financial history. The American Economic Review 106.5 (May 2016): 574–580. CARMEN M. REINHART is vice president and chief economist of the World Bank Group. In addition to my position as a faculty member at Harvard, I am occasionally compensated for my participation in outside activities, such a speaking engagements, conference participation, reviewing, writing/editing articles or reports, royalties, consulting, and serving on panels/advisory boards. 10 Indeed, this is the central argument in Carmen M. Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart (2010) originally published in November 17, 2008). Washington: The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. : Humus The Proud Location: Northern Palouse. Subsequently, she spent several years at the International Monetary… in Economics (summa cum laude) in 1975. COVID-19 Poses the Greatest Challenge Yet to the U.N. Humanitarian System. 197-2010, 2018. Smith Richardson Foundation, Bloomberg She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. ", Reinhart, Carmen, and Vincent Reinhart. Reinhart is ranked among the top economists worldwide, based on publications and scholarly citations. She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. ", "Rogoff and Reinhart defend their numbers", "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? Restructuring Argentina’s Private Debt is Essential. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. International Monetary Fund Restructuring Argentina’s Private Debt is Essential Matías Baglietto/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. Pro-austerity forces here and elsewhere in the world have seized upon the … May 15, 2020 Carmen M. Reinhart & Rob Subbaraman urge governments to cooperate on addressing supply-chain disruptions and refrain from protectionist measures. Princeton University Press, Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System, Copyright © 2020 The President and Fellows of, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy, Taubman Center for State and Local Government, Reinhart, Carmen. She serves in the Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and was a member of the Congressional Budget Office Panel of Economic Advisors. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The speed of the unwinding will only pick up as blame is assigned for the current mess. By Carmen Reinhart and Carmen M. Reinhart. [9] A few years down the road, Reinhart also received her Ph.D. from Columbia University in 1988. According to Research Papers in Economics (RePec). ", https://www.facebook.com/harvardkennedyschool/, https://www.linkedin.com/school/harvard-kennedy-school-of-government/, https://www.youtube.com/user/HarvardKennedySchool, http://instagram.com/harvardkennedyschool/. Growth in a Time of Debt, also known by its authors' names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in a non peer-reviewed issue of the American Economic Review in 2010. [18], In 2013, Reinhart and Rogoff were in the spotlight after researchers discovered that their 2010 paper "Growth in a Time of Debt" in The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings had methodological and computational errors. [1] After her B.A., Reinhart worked for her master's degree in Philosophy, eventually receiving this degree in 1981 from Columbia University. [22][23][24], Reinhart met her husband, Vincent Reinhart, when they were classmates at Columbia University in the late 1970s. She has testified before Congress and is listed among Foreign Policy's Top 100 Global Thinkers, Thompson Reuters' The World's Most Influential Scientific Minds, and Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance. Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. graduate teaching at FIU,[10] Reinhart in 1978 went on to attend Columbia University graduate school. Based on publications and scholarly citations, Reinhart is ranked among the top economists worldwide according to Research Papers in Economics (RePec). ", Reinhart, Carmen M., and Christoph Trebesch. The vast uncertainty surrounding the possible spread of COVID-19 and the duration of the near-economic standstill required to combat it make forecasting little different from guessing. Learn more in our new issue. She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. [18], In a normal recession such as 1991 or 2000, the Keynesian tools of tax cuts and infrastructure spending (fiscal stimulus), and lowered interest rates (monetary stimulus), will usually right the economic ship in a matter of months and lead to recovery and economic expansion. Media: Economist, Financial Times, Macro Musings podcast Tax Reform and the Political Economy of the Tax Base, Journal of Public Economics, 164, pp. "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015." by Guest Blogger for Women Around the World. How Innovation Can Help End Forced Labor in Global Supply Chains . Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco [18], By contrast, the 2008 near-meltdown destroyed parts of the financial system and left other parts reeling and in serious need of de-leveraging. Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. 11 Flow of Funds aggregate the private and public sectors, where the latter is comprised of federal (net), state and local and government enterprises. Moreover, since interest rates were already near zero, the standard monetary tool of lowering rates was not going to provide much help. The president of the European Community recognises that the political will for public sector cost-cutting is exhausted, the IMF now suggests the chancellor find a plan B, and an investigation into the data reveals one of the intellectual underpinnings of austerity to be the result of arithmetic and coding errors. Born in Havana, Cuba, Reinhart arrived in the United States on January 6, 1966, at the age of 10, with her mother and father and three suitcases. Washington: The World Bank named Harvard University professor Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping an expert in the history of debt and financial crises as the global economy suffers its deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Washington Speakers Bureau He concludes that the elasticity is unlikely to be much above 0.1 and may well be zero. * The thesis of the book is that when a government has a debt-to-GDP ratio above 90 percent, it is terrible for economic growth. By Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart. Skip to main content Can American Recover? Project Syndicate [1] In the 1990s, she held several positions in the International Monetary Fund. She became the subject of general news coverage when mathematical errors were found in a research paper she co-authored. Federal Reserve Bank of New York (nonremunerated) Carmen Reinhart. [9], Recommended by Peter Montiel, an M.I.T. Carmen Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. (2010) ". The COVID-19 pandemic poses a once-in-a-generation threat to the world’s population. She has been listed among Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance, Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers, and Thompson Reuters' The World's Most Influential Scientific Minds. And because of this debt, the normal tools of tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending were somewhat less available and/or politically difficult to achieve. (Bloomberg Markets) -- When Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published their heavyweight history of financial crises in late 2009, the title was ironic. KENNETH ROGOFF is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and professor of economics at Harvard University. Her work is featured in the financial press, including The Economist,[12] Newsweek,[13] The Washington Post,[14] and The Wall Street Journal. Nikkei 3 Add to Bookmarks. Political discussions. Please help by adding references that support its inclusion, or remove the category if none exist. 9:00 EST | 14:00 GMT . New York University "Exchange Rate Arrangements in the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. 20 posts • Page 1 of 1. kalm Supporter Posts: 47301 Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:36 pm I am a fan of: Eastern A.K.A. The authors also followed up with a couple of papers arguing the same thing. In 2010, a pair of Harvard economists published a paper that confirmed the warnings of the global austerity movement. Carmen M. Reinhart University of Maryland In estimating the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, Hall finds that, when one takes account of time aggregation, point estimates are small and not significantly different from zero. Reinhart, Carmen M., Vincent Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch. CHRISTOPH TREBESCH is a professor of International Finance at … [4] She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Founding Contributor of VoxEU,[5] and a member of Council on Foreign Relations. In the field of political business cycles, my 1988 Review of Economic Studies paper with Anne Sibert and my 1990 American Economic Review paper explore the incentives politicians have to time budget splurges prior to elections. A separate and previous criticism is that the negative correlation between debt and growth need not be causal. Her work has been published in scholarly journals such as The American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and the Journal of Economic Perspectives. [3] and Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland. Browse all articles written by Carmen Reinhart for Foreign Affairs. (Bloomberg) -- World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart said the coronavirus pandemic is turning into a major economic crisis and warned of the possibility of a … Carmen M. Reinhart (née Castellanos, born October 7, 1955) is a Cuban-born American economist and the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Leigh Bureau Wikimedia Commons During their analysis, Herndon, Ash and Pollin obtained the actual spreadsheet that Reinhart and Rogoff … by Stewart M. Patrick. Globalization was first thrown into reverse with the arrival of the Trump administration in 2016. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff NBER Working Paper No. In December 2018, Reinhart received the King Juan Carlos Prize in Economics and Nabe's Adam Smith Award. Even the serious recession of 1982, which Blinder states "was called the Great Recession in its day", fits comfortably within this category of a typical recession, which will respond to the standard tools. [1] After Reinhart passed her field examinations, she was hired as an economist by Bear Stearns and rose to the investment bank's chief economist three years later. In 2018 she was awarded the King Juan Carlos Prize in Economics and NABE’s Adam Smith Award, among others. "The Crisis Next Time: What We Should Have Learned from 2008." Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises in both advanced economies and emerging markets. Reinhart, Carmen, and Vincent Reinhart. [10][15] Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises in both advanced economies and emerging markets. "The Crisis Next Time: What We Should Have Learned from 2008. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff wrote a wildly influential book four years ago called This Time Is Different. However, we recognize that such engagement can raise questions about perceived and potential conflicts of interest, so we disclose publicly the key professional activities of our faculty outside the Kennedy School. Professor Reinhart held positions as Chief Economist and Vice President at the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. Clearly, this is a “whatever-it-takes” moment for large-scale, outside-the-box fiscal and monetary policies. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly reminded readers that the catastrophic 2008-09 … Mar 23, 2020 Carmen M. Reinhart. Carmen M. Reinhart (née Castellanos, born October 7, 1955) is a Cuban-born American economist and the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. It has been translated to over 20 languages and won the Paul A. Samuelson Award. Foreign Affairs 97.6 (November/December 2018): 84–97. "Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath. Kenneth Rogoff, and Carmen Reinhart. "The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention. "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015. Peterson Institute for International Economics, "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems", "Professor Carmen Reinhart Joins Harvard Kennedy School Faculty", "Reinhart, Rogoff... and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs", "Carmen Reinhart Appointed as World Bank Group Chief Economist", "They Did Their Homework (800 Years of It)", "Romer roundtable: Debt will keep growing", "Don't Buy the Chirpy Forecasts: The history of banking crises indicates this one may be far from over", "Playing Down the Price Tag of the Fiscal Stimulus", Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, "What Did We Learn from the Financial Crisis, the Great Recession, and the Pathetic Recovery?,", "How Much Unemployment Was Caused by Reinhart and Rogoff's Arithmetic Mistake? READ MORE: Bank of England governor: 'Lasting changes' likely even with COVID-19 vaccine Reinhart wrote that the coming credit crunch will not be driven by a boom-bust pattern as had been the case in previous credit crunches, such as the one in Europe in 2007-2009, but instead to the the “historic magnitudes and likely persistence of the slump in economic activity.” They settled in Pasadena, California, during the early years before moving to South Florida, where she grew up. [16], She also has written monthly columns for international media organization Project Syndicate since 2014. Asked whether central banks buying bonds to keep yields low is ultimately a zero-sum game when everyone’s doing it, Reinhart said, “This is a war. Although this is not the first disease outbreak to spread around the globe, it is the first one that governments have so fiercely combated. Outside of Reinhart's professional activities, she has received compensation for conference-related and speaking engagements, advisory boards, as well as writing and royalties. "Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath." The Journal of Economic Perspectives 30.1 (January 2016): 3-27. May 6, 2020 Joseph E. Stiglitz, et al. She has served on the editorial boards of The American Economic Review, the Journal of International Economics, International Journal of Central Banking, among others. [11], She has written and published on a variety of topics in macroeconomics and international finance, including: international capital flows, capital controls, inflation and commodity prices, banking and sovereign debt crises, currency crashes, and contagion. In both 2011 and 2012, she was included in the 50 Most Influential ranking of Bloomberg Markets. I have received compensation or other payments in excess of $500 from the following organizations: Conference-related and speaking engagements, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Previously, she was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. To better understand how to solve public problems by improving policy and leadership, we engage directly with policymakers, public leaders, governments, nonprofit organizations, and for-profit businesses whose activities affect those problems. A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff", "The spreadsheet error in Reinhart and Rogoff's famous paper on debt sustainability", "Researchers Finally Replicated Reinhart-Rogoff, and There Are Serious Problems", Learn how and when to remove this template message, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Carmen_Reinhart&oldid=991266962, University of Maryland College of Behavioral and Social Sciences people, University of Maryland, College Park faculty, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from September 2020, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Pages using infobox economist as a module, Wikipedia articles with BIBSYS identifiers, Wikipedia articles with CANTIC identifiers, Wikipedia articles with SUDOC identifiers, Wikipedia articles with WORLDCATID identifiers, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Open borders seem to facilitate the spread of infection. Claessens, Ricardo Hausmann, Peter Kenen, and Vincent Reinhart for very helpful comments and suggestions and, Facundo Martin, Juan Trevino, and Ioannis Tokatlidis for superb research assistance and the Center for International Political Economy for financial support. [2] Previously, she was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. E2,E3,E6,F3,F4,N10 ABSTRACT We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. She is also a member of American Economic Association, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association,[6] and the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy. [17], Fellow economist Alan Blinder credits both Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff with describing highly relevant aspects of the 2008 financial institution near-meltdown and resulting serious recession. At FIU, [ 10 ] Reinhart in 1978 went on to attend University. 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Big Picture: Global Credit Themes in 2021, Global Sovereign ‍ 9:05 |... Near zero, the standard Monetary tool of lowering rates was not going to provide help... May 6, 2020 Joseph E. Stiglitz, et al as Deputy Director at International! The Vice President and Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund welcome Address Alastair. To inform the understanding of Financial crises in both advanced economies and emerging markets During the years... Support its inclusion, or remove the category if none exist Fund 70! Rob Subbaraman urge governments to cooperate on addressing supply-chain disruptions and refrain from protectionist measures, biography.